#2 Alabama Will Beat #1 Florida in SEC Championship Game

ATLANTA, GA —Last week, I predicted an upset weekend for Thanksgiving. South Carolina and Georgia knocked off the two best teams in the ACC, Miss. State stuck it to the Ole Miss Rebels, and Kentucky and Arkansas were a field goal away from celebrating upsets.

This past week was clearly full of upsets.

Now we are down to the rematch that everyone wanted: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama, Meyer vs. Saban, and Tebow vs. Ingram. Two undefeated SEC teams playing for what could be the national championship on a neutral field with a 50/50 ticket split for the fans. One play could determine the outcome of this game; it doesn’t get any better than this.

Last week, Florida handed their in-state rival Florida State a huge defeat and may have tipped the scales on the decision for moving Bobby Bowden closer to retirement.

Either way, the Gators ran over the Seminoles and definitely looked like the championship team we came to know last year. Perfect timing for a peak performance against the SEC West champion Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama became focused after Auburn put up two big scores. The Tide finally closed the deal, but it went deep in the fourth quarter before any fan could breath. Regardless, Bama won, stayed undefeated, and lived another day to play one of the greatest Florida football teams in history.

Everything points to another Florida victory on Saturday. Tim Tebow is playing his last SEC game, and he doesn’t lose when he sets his mind on winning; i.e. “The Promise.”

The Gators have momentum that carried over from last season’s BCS championship and they are healthy and playing at a top level again. Coach Meyer has been preparing for this game since last spring and the man is a football genius.

But not so fast. Coach Saban has replayed the second half of last year’s SEC championship 1,000 times in his head. After the 10th time, he figured out how to win it by a field goal. Alabama is tough, battle tested, and undefeated. They are also feeling disrespected, which always plays in Saban’s favor.

How This SEC Championship Game Will Play Out

Alabama Offense vs. Florida Defense
Alabama will try to control the clock with a dominant ground game, short passes, and a clock that continues running. The more the clock runs, the more Meyer feels constricted.

Saban wants to grind it out. Bama will try to keep Tim Tebow and company off the field as long as they can, because they know he is the heartbeat of this team. A low scoring game favors Alabama.

The Florida defense will stack the box and challenge McElroy to throw the ball because they believe their corners can play man to man all day long with Bama. Florida is looking for some interceptions to capture the momentum and swing the game their direction.


Florida Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Florida will spread the ball out and give Bama another taste of the 2008 Sugar Bowl. Look for some trick plays, misdirections, and opportunities for Tim Tebow to shine.

Meyer always goes for the biggest playmakers in the big games. Tebow, Cooper, Hernandez, James, Demps, and Rainey will see all the action on Saturday. Meyer lives off adrenaline rushes with his team making the big plays. An early score by Florida would tip the scales to the Gators.

Saban will be committed to stopping Tebow first and foremost. The only way to kill a snake is to cut his head off. Everything starts with Tebow in this offense, and Alabama will blitz someone on Tebow on every play.

Coach Saban will not let Florida win this game on Tebow’s back. He will force someone else to win it. I believe the Alabama defense will figure out a way to give Tebow plenty of trouble, which would this game wide open.

Who Wins?

Florida is the obvious choice. The Gators are defending their turf, but Alabama feels disrespected and is hungrier. This game could come down to two plays, and only God knows when they will happen. This game is truly a coin toss. I believe Alabama pulls the upset 24-21.


What Tipped the Scales?
The arrest of defensive end Carlos Dunlap was shocking. One of the leaders of the Florida Gators was out late drinking the week of the SEC Championship game?

Dunlap was the MVP of the 2008 SEC Championship game; I’ve never seen a winner celebrate until after the fight. A leader’s actions are always clues to the bigger picture. What is the mindset of this Florida team the week of the big game? Distractions kill focus and I guarantee you Alabama is getting ready for a ferocious battle.

Until next time, I will see you on the ball field.



Original Article Published on SEC Sports Report.

Jay Holgate is a sports analyst, freelance writer, and life coach based in Atlanta, Georgia. Jay can be heard on sports radio around the South.

Steve Spurrier Needs to be More Positive after Big Win

ATLANTA, Ga—Some feathers have been ruffled. The Ole Ball Coach is spending a lot of time making negative statements about his Gamecock team and I believe it will be costly as the season goes on.

Many, many statements should have never been said publicly and it needs to stop if this team wants to go to the next level.

South Carolina Head Coach Steve Spurrier has been a great offensive play caller and his success at Florida cannot be questioned. But this is a new era in college football.

Florida Coach Urban Meyer gets it. So does Alabama’s Nick Saban. Even Georgia’s Mark Richt understands what can be said and what cannot. But the Ole Ball coach needs a refresher course in public relations.

Spurrier tends to speak too openly to reporters at the expense of his team. He needs to use the public forum to his advantage. When he becomes an ESPN analyst, he can tell it like it is and it will be priceless analysis.

But as a head coach, Spurrier needs to say things publicly that build his team up, not tear them down. Say positive statements or we are working on that and it should be better.

The players read the quotes and constant criticism is damaging. No college athlete wants to be singled out or joked about in the news.

After a historic school win over #4 Ole Miss that was seen nationally on ESPN, one of Coach Spurrier’s comments was:

“It was interesting to me how the guys all celebrate the victory so much, even guys that didn’t play very well,” Spurrier said Sunday. “I’m one of those guys that if I didn’t play very well or the people I coach didn’t perform all that well, it puts a little bit of damper on it.”When your team wins, everybody on the team wins. Whether it is ugly, miraculous or just pure lucky breaks, a win is a win and the team and the fans celebrate.

I’ve been watching this team for a long time. They need to celebrate a big victory because I’ve seen too many games slip by on Spurrier’s watch. As a matter of fact, the Georgia game just two weeks ago should have been won.

It kills the team chemistry if only the players who do well can celebrate. Sometimes you just don’t play that well, but you still get the win and you need to celebrate. Despite your play, you reached the goal of winning.

Year in and out, the Georgia Bulldogs consistently beat South Carolina despite being outplayed. And all the Bulldogs players celebrate the win because it is another tough SEC win, and it moves them closer to an SEC title.

Last year, Coach Spurrier spent most of the year publicly complaining about quarterbacks Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia and they tended to get worse after every comment. His players had a team meeting and they let him know it was hurting their performance.

Spurrier backed off and acknowledged that he was too critical but too much harm had been done. Several players that may have returned left early for the draft. Maybe they would have left anyway, but the turmoil with the coaches didn’t help.

Spurrier is walking dangerously close to that line again. When you are pushing college athletes to go past their limits, one question always in their heads is, “Is this worth it?”

A Coach’s praise promotes. Criticism kills. No different than any other team effort. Coach Spurrier needs to lay off the public criticism unless he wants to suffer the wrath of the Gamecock nation publicly criticizing him for his team’s losses.

Until next time, I will see you on the ball field.

Jay Holgate is an SEC sports analyst, freelance writer and editor of SEC Sports Report. He can be heard around the South on sports radio. Send comments to editor (at) SECsportsReport.com

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Florida Gator Urban Meyer Was Right; Lane Kiffin Was Not Playing to Win

ATLANTA, Ga.—Who's right? Urban Meyer or Lane Kiffin? Was Kiffin going for the win?

Here is the full story on Urban Meyer’s claim that Lane Kiffin wasn’t playing for the win. I watched the game on CBS and I saw it again on SEC Sports Digital. There are definitely some conclusions about the way this game ended that non-partisan observers can agree on.

Summary of What Happened
The score is 23-6. Florida is on a nice drive and looks like they will score again. The CBS commentators were of the opinion that the game was out of reach. Then Tim Tebow fumbles inside the five-yard line with less than 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
At 11:37 in the fourth quarter, Tennessee gets the ball back.

On Tennessee’s first play, they lose yardage and it takes 37 seconds off the clock before they snap the ball for second down. There is no indication by the Tennessee players to hurry.

Jonathan Crompton pass complete to Bryce Brown for three yards to the Tennessee 37. The next play takes another 35 seconds from the end of the play to the next snap. Tick, tick, tick.

Jonathan Crompton pass complete to Bryce Brown for 21 yards to the Florida 42 for a first down. Play No. 3 takes 25 seconds from the end of the play until the hike of the ball. Running back Bryce Brown had an opportunity to go out of bounds, but did not. The clock keeps ticking.

The Tennessee Volunteers score their first touchdown of the day with 8:11 left in the fourth quarter. The drive is for seven plays, 66 yards and takes off three minutes and 26 seconds. The CBS commentators do not speak as if the Vols are back in the game.

Florida gets the ball back for three plays and three yards, taking another 2:10 off the clock.
Tennessee gets the ball back for nine plays 27 yards, and another 04:10 is wiped off the clock before Crompton throws an interception. Florida runs out the clock for the last 1:51.
Game over. Florida wins 23-13.

Florida Coach Urban Meyer’s Statement:

"I didn't feel like they were going for the win. They wanted to shorten the game," Meyer said. "I think that was the plan. I remember looking out there and there's 10 minutes left in the game and there's no no-huddle, they are down, I think it was 23-6 and no urgency on Tennessee's part."

There are several camera shots of Coach Kiffin during the drive in question but no indication to hurry up by the Vol coach. There was no indication that he was trying to milk the clock either.

Conclusions:

1) It appears to be an accurate statement by Meyer that the Vols were trying to shorten the game as a general strategy. It wasn’t necessarily a fourth-quarter strategy.

2) Coach Meyer was relaying his expertise in coaching that, with less than 12 minutes, and down by two touchdowns, you better hurry it up. With 10 minutes left in the game, and down by 17, it appears that Urban Meyer was one of just a few people that believed the Vols could still win. Kiffin did not believe Tennessee could win or he would have managed the clock differently.

3) Coach Kiffin seems to be just trying to call a play that would have a positive result. Coach Kiffin was not managing the clock well or hurrying his team up so they could win the game.

In hindsight, the reality is Tennessee could have gotten back in the game. It’s a long shot, but Tebow fumbling inside the five isn’t on the mark either. If Kiffin had a chance to do it over, he would have run a hurry-up offense, starting with the Tebow fumble. It would have given the Vols a chance.

Urban Meyer was right. There was no urgency by Coach Kiffin in the fourth quarter. After looking at the facts, I believe that Tennessee was not going for the win but merely for a respectable loss. Kiffin beat the spread but that was it.

Until next time, I will see you on the ball field.

Jay Holgate is an SEC analyst, freelance writer and editor of SEC Sports Report. He can be heard around the South on sports radio. He can be reached at editor (at) SECsportsReport (dot) com.

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